Crossroads of Transformation: The Minnesota Timberwolves' Quest for a Young Backcourt Partner
The Minnesota Timberwolves stand at a critical juncture in their franchise's future, with the growth and success of young talents Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels at least two foundational pieces are in place. While the starting lineup currently boasts experienced players, the team faces imminent changes, especially at the point guard position. With an aging Mike Conley and an impending expensive roster, it is evident that a transformation is on the horizon. The key is to build around Edwards and find a like-aged backcourt partner who can become a pillar of the franchise. The current roster includes young players with potential to fill this vacancy, and the only other options are getting lucky in the draft or free agency & trades.
Fortunately, there are some intriguing options within the team's current roster. One such player is Nickeil Alexander-Walker, whose restricted free agency looms large. Although his tenure with MN has been brief, his performance in the Nuggets playoff series showcased his value to the team. Where I see potential for this course of action is that he proved to be a capable defender and an above average 3pt shooter (40% in the playoffs). NAW fits the age timeline, turning 25 in September, and will be on a value contract of around 6M-8M/year. The questions surrounding his game focus on his shooting and turnovers. In his first three seasons he never shot over 35% from beyond the arc and was consistently turning the ball over. In a small sample size, since arriving to Minnesota, his shooting went up and the assists went down. With a ‘Point Ant’ being a focus moving forward this could allow for an off-ball point guard role for NAW and allow for those numbers to continue to trend in positive directions. The potential of Edwards, McDaniels and Alexander-Walker all defending at the same time would have the coaching staff psyched. This route only becomes successful if NAW is able to take jumps as a player and prove his worth to a team, which has yet to happen considering he’s been traded twice in his young career.
Another potential option for the future starting point guard spot is Wendell Moore Jr. A rather disappointing rookie campaign from #7 would have fans wondering why he would be a smart bet? Losing the trust from Head Coach Chris Finch and only logging 153 minutes over 29 games isn’t a great sign for a first round pick. Moore is on a rookie scale contract spanning through the 2025-26 season, which in that last year he’ll be making only 4.5M. We could expect departures from Nowell, McLaughlin and Rivers, which would open up playing time for the guard to prove his worth. Although Moore didn’t play much, the one game that makes me consider him as an option is the Nov. 30th game vs the Grizzlies when he started after the injury to Jaden McDaniels. In this game he played 20 minutes but majority of that time he was matched up against Ja Morant and Ja finished with a statline of 24 points on 8-20 shooting, 7 turnovers and -9 +/-. Moore has yet to show any shooting prowess in the league thus far but in his junior (and final) season at Duke, he shot 41% from behind the arc. Although this route hasn’t much proof, this next season should give fans and Finch an opportunity to see what the future is for the young guard.
Although the Timberwolves traded away their 2023 first round pick (#16) in the Rudy Gobert trade and are just left with a 2RP (#53), there is a newfound hope for a PG of the future. Rumors swirling around of Portland trading their #3 overall pick for a win-now player to pair with Damian Lillard and naturally Karl-Anthony Towns came up as an option. If Portland is serious about continuing the Dame timeline and are willing to give up their pick this draft, there’s not many better stars “on the market” other than KAT. I would welcome this trade, merely due to the eventual CBA luxury tax rules, and the return would be along the lines of #3 pick, Jursif Nurkic, Nassir Little & hopefully future draft selections. Nurkic would be flipped (unless Naz leaves in FA) and Little would provide bench depth at the wing position. This would give the Wolves a backcourt of Scoot Henderson and Anthony Edwards, who grew up 20 miles away from each other, two explosive players who would create the best young backcourt and soon to become one of the best duos in the league. Only issue is that this route feels unlikely. I personally do not see Portland trading Scoot away as Lillard is aging and the eventual core of Scoot, Simmons and Sharpe feels too good to be tampered with. For a complete analysis of Scoot Henderson check out this piece by Tyler Metcalf & Jack Borman. Another potential roadblock is other teams looking to add Scoot, it is rumored the Pelicans and Wizards are looking to trade into the top 3. Of course there’s also the option of Charlotte taking Scoot over Miller as well. The only truth we have today is that the Timberwolves are picking at #53 and finding a starting point guard in that area of the draft is unlikely to say the least. Since 2000, there’s only been two solid point guards drafted past pick #53 (Isaiah Thomas in ‘11 & Patty Mills ‘09), There have been some solid role players drafted in this region, but most of them are bigs. Have the Timberwolves ever struck gold in the closing moments of a draft before? Why yes we have - Gold Medalist of the 2019 FIBA 3x3 World Cup, Purdue legend Robbie Hummel. Doubtful there is any trade value here so it is likely Tim Conelly drafts someone but I’d imagine he goes best available rather than attempting to draft the point guard of the future. Check out Aiden Berg’s work for potential guards in the back half of the draft. The overarching conclusion emerges: acquiring a point guard from this draft other than through a trade seems unlikely, while the chances of finding a guard in future drafts appear more likely than in the current one.
In terms of future free agency and trades there are two avenues that determine the type of player The Timberwolves would be looking for. A team that has both KAT & Rudy or a team that has just one of the two. If we’re assuming that the “Target Centers” will be here in a few years and the Lore-ARod group is comfortable with paying into the tiers of the luxury tax then a point guard for this roster will need to be incredibly inexpensive. A player who excels in playmaking that can manage an offense well enough to feed the mouths of all the other starters. An archetype similar to Tyus Jones/ Mike Conley but on a rookie contract, which would take some draft mastery to accomplish. Of course there is Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Wendell Moore Jr, but neither of these two offer the passing abilities necessary for an offense of Ant, Jaden, Kat & Rudy. Due to the difficulties of this avenue, it begs the point that a trade must occur in order to find a true backcourt mate for Ant. If Kat is kept on the roster, the point guard will need to be a solid playmaker and shooter but most importantly a defensive minded player to shore up the loss of Rudy. The Jrue Holiday/Markelle Fultz type of player comes to mind. The more likely outcome is the departure of Towns. With Gobert still on the team, this new guard needs to have the playmaking, shooting/scoring archetype rather than being a defensive menace. The archetype would align close to a Tyrese Maxey/Anfernee Simmons type. This route is tough because finding this type of player would be expensive in free agency, hard to draft due to the Wolves pick situation but possible in a KAT trade. The only viable solution for finding a long term fit at the point guard position would be by trading Karl-Anthony Towns for a young guard or for future draft picks which in turn the Timberwolves could select their own.
Moving into the 2023-24 NBA season I would expect Mike Conley to be at the helm of the offense, but I wouldn’t count out the possibility of Tim Connelly and crew making a splash trade for a young guard in return for Towns. As of today, four teams drafting in the top 10 are rumored to have interest trading out of the lottery and with Patrick Beverly raising KAT’s trade value on his latest podcast, anything is possible. Looking at the 3 courses of action, then I argue Nickeil Alexander Walker has the greatest chance of development currently on the team. A Scoot Henderson trade in the 2023 draft would be the best case scenario in terms of using draft picks to find the backcourt mate for Anthony Edwards. Finally, when it comes to trades and/or free agency it is evident the only way forward is by trading away one of the “Target Centers.” Likely leaving the longest tenured wolf, KAT, starting anew on a different franchise in the next 24 months. All avenues in the NBA are subject to change and with the draft set for June 22nd, we should all hold onto our seats.
